Travis Seel takes a look at remaining Wide Receiver Strength of Schedule for the stretch run and the Fantasy playoffs!

Hey everyone! I’m excited to share with you some of my Wide Receiver strength of schedule break downs. Truth be told life has been really busy as of late so I was hoping to write more when it comes to individual team and player schedules so we’re gonna keep this article in front of the paywall. I hope you find some value in what I’ve wrote, and I think simply looking at the charts might help with your managed leagues, best-ball drafts, and DFS lineups. As always, let me know what you thought or ask questions in the comments!

Situational Fantasy Points Allowed

Aggregate Schedule Ranks Wide vs. Slot

Below I’ll take a look at the teams who have the best aggregate schedule for slot and wide-aligned Wide Receivers. I’ve taken the fantasy points per game allowed of each team’s remaining opponents and ranked them by average fantasy points allowed. Here I'll look at team wide and slot rates to give you a idea of who's been playing where for teams with notable schedules we can take advantage of. With slot rates you'll see some Tight End names as they factor heavily into the slot conversation for some teams.

Wide-aligned Strength of Schedule

Wide Friendly Schedules

Detroit boasts the best aggregate schedule for wide-aligned WRs. Jameson Williams lines up out wide a team-high 73.1% of the time and he’s been heating up as of late. WIlliams has averaged 15.8 ppr points since week 6 which has him as the WR11 in that span, even out-producing teammate Amon-Ra St. Brown’s 15.2 ppg.

Jerry Jeudy has shown very little this season as the Browns’ predominant outside WR (82.0 wide %). Despite the Browns’ second best schedule, I’m still dubious. The insertion of Shedeur Sanders into the starting QB slot could come with its speed bumps, and I wouldn’t be surprised to see a now-healthy Cedric Tillman to take more snaps outside. While this is an edge, I’m not sure it’s one the Browns can take advantage of.

If the Eagles intend to throw the ball more often, there’s opportunity for both DeVonta Smith in the slot (below) and AJ Brown out wide. Brown’s run the highest rate of wide routes in his Eagles tenure at just under 90%. His underlying metrics don’t look great though. He ranks 67th of 122 qualifying WRs in separation score from out wide, and he ranks 53rd with only a 12.8% win rate on outside routes. While I do have some optimism for Brown, when coupled with their slot-friendly schedule, I think this plays out better for the Slim Reaper.

DeVonta Smith sits 15th in separation score when lined up out wide, and his 3.19 YPRR are 5th best of all qualifying WRs and his 17.7% win rate is 11th-best. Zooming into the last 5 weeks, Smith has been arguable THE best receiver when targeted out wide. Potential league winner?

The Bears are a bit of a usage crapshoot. Both DJ Moore and Rome Odunze run ~63% of their routes from the outside. As Rome Odunze’s fantasy football Mother, you know I lean with my son. And he’s clearly been better.

Jaylen Waddle only has 2 games under 10 ppr points in his last 7 games, and he’s the WR16 in Pts/G with 14.9 in that span. The Dolphins have the 6th best aggregate schedule for outside WRs and Waddle aligns out wide on 76.8% of his routes. Since week 5, for receivers line up out wide, waddle ranks (*min. 50 wide routes - 93 qualifying):

3rd in rec. Yds. (475)
3rd in YPRR (3.63)
8th in TPRR (0.32)
6th in 1D/RR (0.153)
8th in wide FPts/G. (13.1)

The schedule looks good, but the Chargers’ wide-aligned fantasy production has dried up as of late. Since Week 5 (Oronde Gadsden’s first game with over a 50% route share), the Chargers’ leader in FPts/G when lined up wide is Quentin Johnston with only 6.7. Considering that QJ (0.79 YPRR) and Keenan Allen (1.80 YPRR) haven’t performed as the predominant outside receivers, I wouldn’t attack this schedule too hard.

Tough Sleddin'

The Steelers have the stone-worst aggregate schedule for outside receivers. DK has disappointed in his debut season as a Steeler. His 12.2 FPts/G is only good for WR2, and now Aaron Rodgers has a limp non-throwing wrist. Even with Rodgers playing it hasn’t been great so I’m not expecting big weeks from DK down the stretch.

The Colts have the 4th-worst schedule for WRs aligned out wide. That impacts both Alec Pierce (89.9% wide) and Michael Pittman Jr. (71.6% wide). This one is a bit more nuanced though. As I detailed on Week 10’s Wrap City, Michael Pittman excels against two-high safety looks whereas Pierce gets his work done against single-high. 5 of the Colts’ final 6 opponents currently rank top-half in the league in two-high coverage rates, 4 of which are top-10.

Kayshon Boutte is returning from a strained hamstring this week and he comes back to the second-worst aggregate schedule for outside WRs, which is where he resides for more than 85% of his routes. This week he enters a surprisingly tough matchup against the Bengals who are the 3rd-best defense when defending outside WRs over the last 5 weeks. With the offense now moving through TreVeyon Henderson and a recently consistent Stefon Diggs, I think we might see a lackluster stretch-run from Boutte. Diggs is about around 50/50 usage when it comes to slot and wide play, and as you’ll see below, the Pats have a better schedule for slot wideouts.

Jayden Higgins has 3 double-digit fantasy points in his last 5 for the sub-par Texans. He lines up out wide on more than 80% of his routes and with a tough schedule upcoming I’m not expecting an added level of consistency. The Texans only face 1 opponent the rest of the way who allows more than 20 points to outside WRs.

FPts/G Leaders when Wide Aligned - Since Week 7

*Courtesy of the Fantasy Points Data Suite

Slot Strength of Schedule

Slot Friendly Schedules

Cleveland has the best schedule for slot WRs. The problem is, their slot work goes predominantly to the Tight Ends Harold Fannin and David Njoku, and their schedule gets better as the Browns move through the fantasy playoffs. If we’re looking for a wideout, Cedric Tillman has run about 35% of his routes from the slot in his last 2 games played, and the underlying metrics don’t look great. As I mentioned earlier there’s also turbulence in the Cleveland QB room so I’ve got concerns for the Browns passing game down the stretch.

Wan’Dale Robinson is the clear slot receiver for the Giants with around 70% of his routes coming from the slot this season. The Giants have the second best slot schedule, and Wan’dale sees 3 above average slot matchups in 3 of the Giants’ final 5 games (they’ve got a week 14 bye).

The playoff stretch will be a big one for Jalen Coker to try and get back on track with some of what we saw in 2024. Tet McMillan has taken over this target share with nobody else bringing anything of fantasy relevance. Coker has about a 65% slot rate, but over the past 4 weeks since he’s been truly back from injury he’s only got 1.06 YPRR and a 10.7% target share when he’s lined up in the slot. I’d lean away from this being a real edge for fantasy gamers.

The Packers have the 5th friendliest schedule for slot WRs and the 21-day practice window has opened for slot demon Jayden Reed. The Packers have the 5th-most slot friendly schedule for WRs, but one that is a bit skewed by two matchups against Chicago who are allergic to slot defense.

I’m hopeful he sees significant usage as historically the Packers have relegated him to 3-wide sets only, not using him with 2 or fewer wideouts on the field. The Packers currently have the 6th-fewest dropbacks from those 3-wide sets on the season, so if Reed is going to succeed, the team will have to shift it’s philosophy, or he’ll have to make the most of his opportunities at an elite clip. While I’m fired up about his return, I think it’s likely the ladder, which means he’s no more than a flex play when he returns in just an average matchup against Detroit.

Tough Sleddin'

The Vikings’ predominant slot player is Jalen Nailor at around 63.5% slot routes over the last 4 weeks. He’s paced the team in that span, but with only 9 targets, the pie isn’t very big. The underlying metrics on those 9 targets don’t look encouraging and when you consider that JJ McCarthy is outside the top-30 in QB rating when targeting the slot, I don’t think we should expect big production. The main thing that’s going for him is he’ll be on the field as the Vikings run the 12th most dropbacks from 11 personnel.

It’s gonna be a tough slate to transcend for Khalil Shakir. He’s only got 2 above average matchups left, and 3 bad matchups against the Bengals, Browns, and the Eagles in championship week. He’s likely gotta be slotted into your flex position which should be ok based on volume, but I don’t expect a ton of ceiling and Shakir has only 1.28 YPRR and 6.1 FPts/G from the slot over the last 4 weeks.

Check out the below charts as a look at remaining schedules for slot and wide-aligned WRs. Leave your thoughts in the comments! As I mentioned in the intro, I didn’t get the time I needed to go deep on this part, but I thought the charts would still be fun for readers. I can do another check-in on this before the fantasy playoffs start to get us all dialed in!

Thanks for reading! Remeber I can answer any specific matchup questions in our chat thread so feel free to drop your questions there! Leave a comment if you have any questions for the week and let me know what you thought! Don’t forget to subscribe to get notifications when we drop content. We appreciate your continued support!

~ Travis Seel, CCO, OTC Fantasy